Skip to main content
Open this photo in gallery:

Britain’s departure date has been extended twice already and it’s now set for Oct. 31. But there’s still no agreement on the terms of the country’s withdrawal or the future of trade relations with the EU.ANDREW YATES/Reuters

High-school librarian Alison Squibb knows exactly who she wants as Britain’s next prime minister and she’s part of a select group of people who will make the decision.

Ms. Squibb lives outside Bournemouth on England’s south coast and she’s one of roughly 160,000 members of Britain’s governing Conservative Party who are about to elect a leader to replace Theresa May. The winner will become prime minister on July 24 and take over the daunting challenge of trying to pull the country out of the European Union, something Ms. May failed to accomplish.

Britain’s departure date has been extended twice already and it’s now set for Oct. 31. But there’s still no agreement on the terms of the country’s withdrawal or the future of trade relations with the EU.

Like most Tory faithful, Ms. Squibb is fed up with the delay and she wants the country to leave on Halloween, with or without a deal. “I don’t worry about a no-deal Brexit at all. I don’t think it will be as bad as everyone says,” she said as she stood in line at an all-candidates meeting at the Bournemouth Pavilion last week with her 88-year-old mother Edna Ogle.

Both women are supporting former foreign secretary Boris Johnson for leader mainly because he’s promised to leave on Oct. 31, calling it a “do or die” commitment. “I think he’s the only person left who can save the Conservatives and get Brexit done,” she said.

Ms. Squibb’s frustration with Brexit and her willingness to embrace a no-deal outcome is shared by many fellow Tories. The party membership is far more hard line about Brexit than the rest of the country, which has created a dilemma for Mr. Johnson and his only rival in the leadership race, current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.

In order to win the leadership, they have to persuade party members by taking a tough line on Brexit and endorsing a no-deal option. But to govern as prime minister, they have to be mindful of the economic consequences of a no-deal departure and appeal to the general public, which is far less supportive of the idea.

A recent survey by researchers at Queen Mary University of London and the University of Sussex found that 76 per cent of Conservative Party members would rather leave the EU without a deal than remain in the bloc. By contrast, just 35 per cent of the general public would opt for a no-deal exit and many business groups have said a disorderly Brexit would cause havoc and lead to job losses.

Mr. Johnson and Mr. Hunt have insisted they would prefer to negotiate a deal with the EU, but they’ve also made it clear that they’re prepared to leave without one. Mr. Johnson has gone further by promising to pull Britain out on Oct. 31 no matter what, while Mr. Hunt has left open the possibility of a further delay. Mr. Hunt has also promised to be tougher in talks with the EU and his Brexit negotiating team will be led by former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who helped negotiate the Canada-EU trade deal.

For now, Mr. Johnson’s no-deal pledge appears to be winning over the party. A recent poll of 1,279 members by the website ConservativeHome found that nearly two-thirds planned to vote for him as leader. At the candidates’ event in Bournemouth last week, Mr. Johnson received loud applause when he promised to “get Brexit done” and to go after Brussel’s negotiators with “a little more resolve."

That’s enough for Giles Delafeld, a party member who lives in Milton Keynes, north of London, and works at online realtor Purplebricks as chief digital officer. “I think at this point in time we need somebody who can be more bullish, more positive and instill more confidence in us as a country,” Mr. Delafeld said in explaining why he supports Mr. Johnson and a no-deal Brexit.

He added that getting out of the EU was so important he was willing to overlook Mr. Johnson’s personal foibles (which includes one divorce, one separation, several extramarital affairs and at least one child out of wedlock) as well as his many gaffes, such as suggesting that Muslim women who wear burkas look like letterboxes. “I appreciate that Boris isn’t everyone’s cup of tea,” he said. “I just think he’s what we need right now.”

Mark Anderson, a technology consultant who also serves on the Bournemouth council, loves Mr. Johnson’s colourful personality but he’s mainly backing him because of Brexit. “I think Boris will take us out on the 31st of October,” Mr. Anderson said. “If we don’t come out on the 31st of October, the whole of the political establishment will be in utter disrepute.”

Tim Bale, a politics professor at Queen Mary University, said the Conservative membership being at odds with the country on Brexit poses a challenge for Mr. Johnson. “Boris Johnson’s entire career has in some ways been based on telling people what they want to hear in order to get what he wants,” Mr. Bale said. “And there is going to come a crunch for him if he does win this contest where he’s going to have to either deliver on the promise to leave by the 31st, which is going to be quite difficult to do I suspect, or he’s going to have to let a lot of people down and rely on the sheer force of his persona and charisma to get him through that very difficult moment.”

Many officials in Brussels have also been dismissive of Mr. Johnson’s pledge. Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s lead spokesman on Brexit, has called Mr. Johnson’s Brexit strategy a myth and said he continues to “dissemble, exaggerate and disinform the public” about Brexit.

There are also Conservatives who remain skeptical about Mr. Johnson. “He has a tendency to put his foot in it rather largely, and is that really what we want in a prime minister?” asked Sarah Anderson, a party member and city councillor in Bournemouth.

John Fisher, a party member from Norwich, also remains unconvinced. He wants to hear how Mr. Johnson will get the country out of the EU on Oct. 31 and he’s worried about the frontrunner’s past gaffes. “It’s up to Johnson to lose [the leadership],” Mr. Fisher said. “The way he carries on it’s still possible he could lose it.”

Follow related authors and topics

Authors and topics you follow will be added to your personal news feed in Following.

Interact with The Globe