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editorial

A nation of armchair meteorologists, Canadians should be able to recognize the difference between the climate and the weather.

To wit: On the British Columbia coast, the climate is mild and rainy, even on days when the weather is hot and dry.

It’s a good distinction to keep in mind as we batten down the hatches for Donald Trump’s incipient trade war.

In moments like these, with the United States President and his aides sputtering warlike rhetoric about their nation’s closest ally, it can be tempting to intuit a lasting shift in relations between the two countries.

And sure, it’s clear that, as long as Mr. Trump occupies the Oval Office, Canada has to be prepared for diplomatic turmoil and economic pain.

But even as we brace ourselves, it is important not to misinterpret the nature of this quarrel.

The truth is, Mr. Trump has the backing of no serious constituency in his attack on our country. He is going it alone. When this president is gone, relations between our countries will revert to where they were. If we manage it right, we’ll look back on this as nothing more than a “summer squall,” as former prime minister Brian Mulroney put it this week.

Yes, Mr. Trump has brought about a profound shift in some areas of U.S. politics. He has dragged the far right’s hatred of non-white Americans into the mainstream, for instance. And his “fake news” trope will no doubt inspire populists to attack journalists for a long time to come.

But where the President has managed a climactic change in American attitudes, the conditions for such a shift usually preceded him. Animus towards Muslims and Mexicans has festered on the fringes of U.S. political life for years. So has carping about the alleged liberal bias of the media.

Hostility towards Canada has no such popular basis. When Americans think about Canada at all, it’s with a kind of warm condescension. There simply isn’t a significant faction of the U.S. public that is spoiling for this fight.

Just look at the hero’s welcome given Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland in Washington this week. She was feted as a diplomat, and Congress members lined up behind her efforts to keep the North American free-trade agreement alive and to end Mr. Trump’s metal tariffs.

At the most basic level, Americans like us. As recently as February, 94 per cent of them had a favourable view of Canada, Gallup found – more than any other country.

Generic good feeling only goes so far, of course, but both Republicans and Democrats have pragmatic reasons for supporting a strong cross-border alliance. The sheer scale of our mutual trade is imposing – $889-billion worth of goods and services last year – but so too is its geographic range. Canada is the largest foreign-export market for dozens of American states, from Maine to Colorado. Political support for the relationship is not only deep but broad.

NAFTA is less loved in the U.S. than in Canada, but the deal is far more popular, stateside, than Mr. Trump’s blowtorch rhetoric would suggest. As recently as last spring, a majority of Americans said the pact has been good for their country, according to Pew.

The partisan divide on NAFTA also plays to Canada’s advantage. While some likely Democratic contenders for president, such as Elizabeth Warren, criticize the deal from the left, the party’s voters overwhelmingly like North American free trade. Republicans are at loggerheads the other way around: Their base is cool to NAFTA but party elites support it for philosophical reasons.

The structural strength of our bond with the U.S. is not unassailable, of course. Mr. Trump has shown the ability to mould American politics in surprising ways, most notably by increasing Republican support for Russia.

And even if long-term prospects are bright, dealing with President Trump in the interim will be awful. His threatened auto tariffs could plunge us into recession. Responding to his belligerence will occupy political airtime better spent on problems not contrived entirely in the President’s mind.

But we must not confuse the need for a tactical response to Mr. Trump’s aggression with a need to strategically realign ourselves on the global stage. History’s greatest superpower and richest economy is our next-door neighbour and best friend. That hasn’t changed, and won’t.

In the Canada-U. S. relationship, the long-term forecast remains clement. We can weather the Trumpian storm.

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