Barely two years ago, Pedro Sanchez’s political career looked to be over. The telegenic former economics professor had led Spain’s Socialists to their worst losses in 40 years of Spanish democracy in successive elections in 2015 and 2016, forcing him to step down as party leader.
Mr. Sanchez surprised everyone, however, by winning back his previous job in a hotly contested 2017 leadership race. He surprised everyone again, less than a year later, by forcing a vote in Congress to oust Spain’s scandal-plagued, centre-right People’s Party (PP) from power.
Forming a coalition with the far-left Podemos and a sprinkling of Catalonian separatists, Mr. Sanchez became Prime Minister last June even though his Socialist Party held only 85 of the 350 seats in Congress. He worked diligently after that to rebuild his party’s fortunes.
Mostly, he set out to regain the credibility Spain’s Socialists had lost in the wake of the Great Recession, when the party had last formed the government. Then, the country’s unemployment rate surged above 25 per cent, its real estate market collapsed, and its banks teetered on the brink. At the peak of the crisis, almost half of young Spaniards were jobless.
By the time Mr. Sanchez took over last year, Spain’s economy was already on the road to recovery, thanks in large part to labour market reforms introduced under former PP prime minister Mariano Rajoy. Mr. Sanchez then moved to increase the minimum wage by 22 per cent – allowing the Socialists to consolidate support on the left, to the detriment of Podemos – although many experts worried the sudden increase would deal a blow to hiring.
Unemployment did rise in the first quarter of 2019, to 14.7 per cent, but the higher minimum wage remains popular. In Sunday’s election, Socialist support jumped to 29 per cent from 23 per cent in 2016. Podemos dropped to 14 per cent from 21 per cent. And the Socialists surged past the PP, whose support plunged to 16 per cent from 33 per cent.
The results could still leave Spain with its third hung parliament in barely three years. The Socialist-PP duopoly that ruled the country for almost four decades after the death of dictator Francisco Franco has given way to a five-party free-for-all that makes governing nearly impossible. No party seems capable of passing much-needed political and economic changes.
The Socialists benefited in Sunday’s election from voter fears that the PP could form a coalition government with the far-right Vox, which campaigned on an anti-Muslim, anti-immigration platform and promised zero tolerance for Catalonian separatists. Vox ended up winning more than 10 per cent of the vote and its first-ever seats in Congress.
It’s unclear whether Mr. Sanchez will be able to form a new government. His Socialists won 123 seats in the Congress of Deputies. A coalition with Podemos and Basque nationalists would still leave them short of a clear majority. It could only survive if Catalonian separatists abstain on most votes.
Many business and civil society leaders are pushing for a coalition between the Socialists and centre-right Ciudadanos, or Citizens’ Party, which won 16 per cent of the vote and 57 seats in Sunday’s vote. But Ciudadanos Leader Albert Rivera appears to have ruled out that idea, preferring to usurp the mantle of opposition leader from PP chief Pablo Casado and campaign for the next election, which promises to come sooner rather than later.
Besides, the Socialists and Ciudadanos have taken vastly different approaches to dealing with Catalonian separatists. Mr. Sanchez is willing to at least talk to them, and possibly give more power to the region; Mr. Rivera, who hails from Catalonia, refuses to cede an inch. Both leaders agree, however, that a Catalonian independence referendum is out of the question.
Indeed, the Catalonian question threatens to plague Mr. Sanchez. He cannot be seen to be too accommodating toward the region without creating a backlash elsewhere in the country that would benefit his rivals on the right. Yet, he will need to court Catalonian separatists in Congress if his government is to last long enough to actually get anything done.
The outcome of the May 26 European Parliament elections, which are held on the same day as municipal elections in Spain, could determine Mr. Sanchez’s next move. If the Socialists come out on top in those votes, and the right further fragments, Mr. Sanchez could declare a hung parliament. That would force another snap election, the country’s fourth in less than four years.
It would be a risky gambit, to be sure, but one made in the expectation that Spaniards are becoming tired of going to the polls and would finally give the Socialists a majority, just to be done with it.
If the past four years are anything to go by, however, all bets are off in Spanish politics.
Konrad Yakabuski