A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
A recent global survey found that many investors are delusionally optimistic about returns,
“Some of the biggest findings are the usual suspects; people check their portfolio way too often (guilty), they don’t give their investments nearly enough time, and their return expectations are too high. Like, way too high. Sixteen per cent of people expect 20 per cent annual returns over the next five years. Twenty per cent compounded over five years is 148 per cent. Good luck with that… The fastest way to fail as an investor to have reality fall short of your expectations. It’s better to plan for 5 per cent and get 10 per cent than to plan on 10 per cent and only get 5 per cent.”
“Global Investor Expectations” – Irrelevant Investor
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Investors have every reason to be concerned about the sustainability of high dividends in the domestic oil patch, but CEOs in the sector appear largely unfazed,
“Mid-sized Alberta oil and gas producers say their share prices have fallen so low that investors are starting to worry their rising dividend yields are becoming unsustainable. The irony is that his Calgary-based company has no intention of reducing its monthly payouts to shareholders, which it has hiked three times in the past three years, said CEO Grant Fagerheim of Whitecap Resources Inc… CEO Tony Marino of Vermilion Energy Inc. says he is seeing similar investor worries as his company’s share price fell by 16 per cent over the past three months, boosting its yield to almost 10 per cent from about eight per cent. He said a dividend cut is ‘not something we’re even entertaining.’ ”
There was also a quote in the story noting that at US$50 per barrel some dividend yields might become unsustainable but not at current levels.
“High dividend yields due to cheaper shares spook investors, oil and gas CEOs say” – Report on Business
“Oil at six-week high on Gulf of Mexico storm, Iran tensions” – Reuters
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A new Globe and Mail editorial explains that while foreign money is not blameless in creating a housing affordability crisis, domestic policy also needs to be changed,
“Canadian housing policy is still largely rooted in the last century. Too much of the land in Toronto and Vancouver is reserved for single-detached homes, which means the cost of the little land available for multifamily housing is unduly inflated. As well, too many owners of single-detached properties in Vancouver and Toronto oppose development under the guise of neighbourhood character – and these voices carry too much weight among elected officials.
The foreign-buyers tax in B.C. shows smart government policies can work. But their relatively limited impact also shows housing policies must be more ambitious if affordable housing for Canadians is the goal. “
“Houses in Canada are too expensive, and it’s not just the fault of foreign speculators” – Globe and Mail
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Citi research published a (very) long report outlining their top stock picks in the internet sector,
“Internet remains a growth sector, with global Internet revenues forecasted to grow 19 per cent in 2019 (vs. 28 per cent in 2018) … Our global Internet team’s top Buy-rated picks include WUBA, AfreecaTV, BABA, GOOGL, DHER, HUYA, MMYT and Tencent. 360 Security Technology, Naver and Roku are among the 12 Sell-rated names. Our quant team’s analysis flags Rakuten, MakeMyTrip, Perfect World, Baidu and JD.com as Buy-rated names among the least crowded… Companies trading at the lowest price-to-growth ratios include Zynga, Century Huatong and JD.com.”
“@SBarlow_ROB C: Top Internet stock picks” – (research excerpt) Twitter
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Tweet of the Day: “@zatapatique as per @tomashirstecon's pithy formulation: "your risk-free returns will be lowered until fiscal capacity is shifted to those who might actually use it" – Twitter
Diversion: “Moon landings footage would have been impossible to fake – a film expert explains why” – The Conversation
Newsletter: “Investors’ Seven Deadly Sins” – Globe Investor
Scott Barlow