A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
Citi strategists have identified a number of investment themes they believe are set to explode in popularity,
“One notable point is that a number of the concepts we look at have actually been around for a while — all-solid-state batteries, anti-aging medicines, eSports and offshore wind turbines — but something has changed in each of them, such that we’re now at a tipping point of accelerated adoption.”
I have a lot of cultural (and physical health) issues with the eSports trend but the growth is undeniable,
“eSPORTS Viewership of eSports is currently on par with American football and is expected to grow 14-15% by 2021”
“@SBarlow_ROB Citi sees period of ‘accelerated adoption’ for eSports, solid state batteries, offshore wind” – (research excerpt) Twitter
“@SBarlow_ROB C top investment trends graphic” – (research excerpt) Twitter
" DISRUPTIVE INNOVATIONS VI Ten More Things to Stop and Think About " - (Full report) Citi
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I’m going to expand on this for the Globe Investor newsletter later today, but Morgan Stanley is very concerned about a slowdown in global growth,
“Global growth continues to decelerate, DM inflation keeps rising, financial conditions carry on tightening and trade tensions carry on escalating. All these presenting a challenging backdrop, even before we consider poor seasonality for August/September. The level of growth/inflation/policy may be OK, but the direction of travel remains problematic.”
“@SBarlow_ROB MS not liking 2nd derivative of global growth” – (research excerpt) Twitter
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The Financial Times’ Alphaville site (free to read with registration) details the ongoing correction in Australian housing prices. Canada and Australia’s are not entirely analogous – they are at different stages of the interest rate cycle, for one – but both countries are heavily exposed to commodity demand and have seen significant housing bubbles.
The answer to the question “is Australia’s real estate market correction and omen for Canada?” is “let’s hope that’s as bad as it gets here”,
“The Australian Bureau of Statistics put out a helpful infographic last month, showing some price declines in the eight capital cities in the first three months of the year, although Tasmania's Hobart is still going strong… [The report] also put the overall decline in context, a mere $22.5bn drop set against the $6.9tn value of the 10m residential dwellings in the country. The mean price of a dwelling was $687, 700. .. The investment bank's economists put it in the context of a generally positive assessment of the economy, and expect higher interest rates some time late next year. So, not a crash unfolding, just the orderly first stages of a correction almost three decades into an Australian economic miracle. Good to know.”
“That unfolding Australian house price crash” – FT Alphaville
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‘Liquidity’ is a word I suggest investors get familiar with in the coming weeks,
“a global liquidity squeeze unerringly finds its way to the weaker links in the world economy. Emerging markets with any combination of large current account deficits rising inflation, politicised monetary policy or large dollar borrowings are clear cases in point… There are vulnerabilities in the developed world, too… corporate bond spreads are widening. And in the sovereign debt market Italy is in the line of fire.cits, rising inflation, politicised monetary policy or large dollar borrowings are clear cases in point… “
“Global liquidity squeeze looks set to continue” – Financial Times (paywall)
“Some disquieting conclusions for investors about global investment flows” – Barlow, Inside the Market
Tweet of the Day: “@SBarlow_ROB GS: Hedge fund VIP stock list underperforming, largely due to FB” – (table of stocks) Twitter
Diversion: “World’s busiest air routes, 2017” – Marginal Revolution
Scott Barlow