Governing B.C. NDP selects election campaign team

Open this photo in gallery:

The governing B.C. New Democratic Party named its election campaign director on Friday, as the government faces political headwinds but a divided opposition.

Marie Della Mattia, who stepped down on Friday as the province’s deputy minister for communications to resume her veteran role in the NDP’s war room, said she expects to spend the next nine months preparing for an election. Under the province’s law of fixed election dates, voters are scheduled to go to the polls on Oct. 19.

Ms. Della Mattia said the NDP will continue to focus on key voter issues of cost of living, housing and health care as it heads toward the fall. “The election day will be Oct. 19,” she said in an interview shortly after Mr. Eby announced her appointment at an unscheduled caucus meeting on Friday morning.

But if the NDP chooses to call an election for the spring, Premier David Eby could have an advantage as his political rivals trail in the polls and centre-right voters divide their loyalties between two opposition parties.

There has been a lot of turnover since the previous provincial vote, in 2020, when John Horgan led the NDP to a strong majority victory in a snap election, ending three years of minority government.

Mr. Horgan retired and handed over the reins to Mr. Eby in October, 2022. Mr. Eby, the former attorney-general, has been working to establish his own profile, and his government faces voter frustration on key issues such as housing unaffordability and inflation.

The Liberals have changed both their leader and their name, but the change hasn’t energized their voter base.

Kevin Falcon took over from Andrew Wilkinson after the party’s dismal showing in the 2020 election. In April of 2023, Mr. Falcon announced that the party was rebranding as BC United, which he promised would bring an “energetic new feel.”

Since then, the BC Conservatives (with two MLAs, both former members of Mr. Falcon’s caucus) have been running second in public-opinion polls, behind the NDP. In the 2020 election, the Conservatives garnered less than 2 per cent of votes.

Conservative Leader John Rustad, who was turfed from Mr. Falcon’s caucus for questioning the impacts of climate change, used the past sitting of the legislature to establish his profile. In the House, he attacked the government’s Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity (SOGI) program in schools, and called for an end to carbon pricing.

The fourth opposition party, the BC Greens, held the balance of power in the minority government but was reduced to two seats in 2020. Green Leader Sonia Furstenau recently announced that she’ll run in the NDP stronghold of Victoria-Beacon Hill, leaving behind the riding of Cowichan Valley where she has served since 2017.

The Greens have outperformed the Conservatives in fundraising, pulling in $1.2-million in 2023, while the Conservatives collected $444,000. But in campaign finance, the NDP and BC United still dominate. The NDP brought in more than $4.5-million, compared with just under $3-million for Mr. Falcon’s team.

Mr. Horgan enjoyed a strong personal popularity, and Mr. Eby initially was cautious about deviating from his predecessor’s direction.

But Mr. Eby is developing his reputation as “a man of action,” Ms. Della Mattia said. “He’s clearly determined to solve every problem that comes to his attention. If he hears it and sees it, he wants to find a solution.”

Pollster Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said the NDP faces challenges around top issues such as housing costs, but it enjoys a strong advantage as BC United and the Conservatives split the centre-right vote.

“As we have seen through decades of Canadian political history, a divided opposition is rarely the successful recipe for a change in government,” she said in an interview.

Recent opinion polls have consistently shown the NDP with a comfortable lead in support, while the BC Conservatives are running in second place, ahead of BC United and the Greens.

In an online study conducted by Research Co. between Jan. 22-24, the NDP was leading with 46 per cent, the Conservatives were at 25 per cent, BC United at 17 per cent and the Greens had 11 per cent.

The sample of 800 adults in B.C. has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Similar popularity numbers were found in an Angus Reid survey conducted late last year. Although it showed that voters were dissatisfied with the Eby government on issues including housing affordability, health care and the opioid crisis, the NDP continued to lead with 42-per-cent support. The poll put the Conservatives at 25 per cent, BC United at 20, and the Greens at 12.

The survey, among a sample of 487 voters who are members of Angus Reid Forum, did not have a margin of error, but the company says that a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.