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Liberal leader Philippe Couillard, Coalition Avenir Quebec leader Francois Legault, moderator Pierre Bruneau, PQ leader Jean-Francois Lisee and Quebec Solidaire leader Manon Masse, at the third leaders' debate in Montreal, Sept. 20, 2018.SEBASTIEN ST-JEAN/AFP/Getty Images

The entrants in the horse race that is the Quebec election campaign got off to a start as listless as the summer day when the bell sounded, but somehow they enter the home-stretch final week locked in a run for the ages.

After a 10-day period that saw three debates, a flurry of public opinion polls and intense scrutiny of the front-runner, François Legault, a few things are clear. The contest for the Oct. 1 vote has narrowed between Mr. Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec and the Quebec Liberal Party of Philippe Couillard.

Neither party shows enough support yet to form a majority government but, for the first time in nearly 50 years, independence is off the table and a party other than the Liberals or the Parti Québécois might take power.

The positive momentum Mr. Legault rode for the first half of the campaign turned negative: He was buffeted by a confusing immigration policy, lacklustre debate performances and a downward trend in almost every recent opinion poll.

Will the strong desire for a change from the Liberals overtake doubts that Mr. Legault and his six-year-old party are ready? “The jello has not yet set,” said pollster Jean-Marc Léger, whose survey this week showed the Liberals and CAQ separated by one percentage point. Sixty-eight per cent of respondents said they wanted change, and 38 per cent said they were still likely to change their minds.

Mr. Legault led among francophone voters who live in key swing ridings outside Montreal. But pollsters have tended to underestimate Liberal backing, and overall support could be split four ways.

Swing-voting commuters at Montreal’s Gare Centrale, a daily transit point for thousands of people who work in the city but live in outside suburbs, illustrated the uncertainty.

Jonathan Goyette, a 39-year-old computer analyst from Mascouche, is leaning toward the CAQ but would have switched leftward for an appealing leader. “We’ve been going back and forth between the PQ and Liberals and it would be good to have a new party in power. A breath of fresh air could be good,” Mr. Goyette said. “I would have liked to see someone like Jack Layton in this provincial election, someone with a human side who unites people. None of the leaders has that kind of charisma.”

Anthony Bourdon, a 28-year-old nurse and part-time student in Montreal had eyed Mr. Legault but is now leaning Liberal. “I’d rather ride a bike that I know than buy a new one and not know what speed it’s going,” he said. Mr. Legault “looks more like a business leader than the leader of a nation.”

In the final debate Thursday night, Mr. Legault buoyed his supporters with a solid performance that was abrasive at times but included an apology for mistakes he made while explaining his plan to cut immigration quotas and impose values and language tests on immigrants.

The immigration muddle “cost him dearly,” Mr. Léger said. “Not on the principle. Most Quebeckers want to limit immigration. But it’s the means: Expulsion, values tests … it’s confused and, on such an important issue, Quebeckers expect more from a premier.”

Mr. Legault returned to a pointed attack on Mr. Couillard on the topic of Quebec identity and diversity – questions that have replaced national independence as the key provincial fault line. He reiterated his plan to ban religious symbols from being worn by public servants in positions of authority, such as police officers. It’s a plan popular with the public. Mr. Couillard did not back down, saying he would not bend to opinion polls on matters of individual freedom.

Not since 1970, when the Union Nationale and Créditiste parties were clinging to life, have four parties been so competitive.

Parti Québécois Leader Jean-François Lisée ran a smooth campaign until he faltered in the final debate, arguing with opponents and the moderator alike. He has failed to catch the two leading parties so far.

Québec Solidiare, the other pro-independence party, has staked out the left with vast spending promises. Strong debate performances by its chief representative, Manon Massé, have eaten into both PQ and CAQ support. Combined, the PQ and QS match each of the Liberals and CAQ with support from about one third of the province. Separately, each will struggle for official party status.

Mr. Couillard has banked heavily on maintaining his image as the calm and steady premier. Quebec independence may be dormant but many Quebeckers still see the province as a state within Canada. The legislature is called the National Assembly and in French the premier carries the same title as Justin Trudeau: Premier Ministre. A Quebec premier must manage highways, health care and education but also protect language, promote culture, reflect nationalist aspirations and engage in international relations.

Mr. Couillard’s style has fed accusations that he is aloof – bolstered by his own gaffe this week when he flippantly said a small family could eat on $75 a week. The misstep points to a part of Mr. Couillard’s problem: He has trouble reaching the masses beyond bedrock Liberal supporters. “Quebeckers want to put their confidence in someone, like they did with Jack Layton or Justin Trudeau” in previous federal campaigns, Mr. Léger said.

“The problem here is all the leaders are hard to fall in love with.”

With reporting from Ingrid Peritz

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