There used to be a solid relationship between the state of the economy and a U.S. president’s popularity. The occupant of the White House got much of the credit for good times and much of the blame for bad times.
Not any more.
President Joe Biden came into office in early 2021 with an approval rating of more than 53 per cent, according to a running tally of polls compiled by the website 538. The honeymoon was brief. By the summer of 2022, his approval rating was 37.9 per cent.
And as the U.S. economy roared back from the pandemic, Mr. Biden’s own numbers barely budged. Today, the U.S. unemployment rate is just 3.9 per cent. There’s been widespread wage growth. Inflation had been wrestled down to 3.1 per cent as of January, with no recession. And Mr. Biden’s approval rating is stuck at 38 per cent.
Past U.S. presidents have had periods of low poll numbers but – with the exception of Donald Trump – almost never when the economy was doing well.
In early 1983, for example, Ronald Reagan’s approval rating was lower than Mr. Biden’s is today. But unemployment was at almost 11 per cent. And when the economy recovered, so did Mr. Reagan’s popularity. In the 1984 election, his Morning in America campaign won 49 of 50 states.
Mr. Biden’s approval rating is even below that of his predecessor. Four years ago this week, Mr. Trump’s score was four points higher.
What gives?
One theory is that we’re living in a world post-truth age. There’s no actual recession, just a vibe-cession. The economy may not be objectively awful, but people still feel awful.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reached its lowest level in history not in the depths of the pandemic, or the blackest days of the 2008 financial crisis, but in the summer of 2022. The index has risen since, but it’s still barely higher than it was in April, 2020 – when the unemployment rate was nearly 15 per cent.
A second issue bedevilling Mr. Biden’s popularity may be housing prices. As in Canada, though to a lesser extent, prices and rents in most U.S. markets are up since the start of the pandemic. The real estate site Zillow estimates that asking rates for rent have risen 30 per cent, and the share of median household income needed for rent has gone to 29 per cent from 27.3 per cent.
For homeowners with no plans to move, this may be a non-issue. But for millions of other Americans, their inflation rate doesn’t just feel higher than the consumer price index. It may be objectively higher.
A third explanation for what’s hurting Mr. Biden is related to the first: U.S. politics has become so polarized that one part of the electorate – Republicans – simply doesn’t believe good news associated with the other side.
You can get a taste of that in a recent New York Times/Siena poll. Among those surveyed, 51 per cent say that their personal financial situation is excellent or good – but only 26 per cent say the same about U.S. economic conditions. Just 17 per cent say their financial situation is poor, but 51 per cent say that overall economic conditions are poor.
Among voters who identify as Democrats, 27 per cent say that economic conditions are poor. But the figure among Republicans is 72 per cent.
Independent voters – the key to election victory – are vibing more in tune with Republicans. Fifty-two per cent of independents say the economy is poor, and 67 per cent say the economy is worse than four years ago.
Which brings me to the final explanation for what’s dogging Mr. Biden and the Democrats: cultural estrangement.
Or to rework Bill Clinton’s famous election slogan: Maybe it’s not the economy, stupid.
Democrats were once the party of the working class, while Republicans captured highly educated white voters. The parties have since flipped.
Mr. Biden, whose political identity was formed in that earlier era, still wants to be the president of blue-collar America. Unlike much of his party, his impulses are pre-woke. And his policies are focused on the working class – everything from subsidies for manufacturing to a campaign budget that promises higher taxes on business and the wealthy to pay for such things as better health-insurance subsidies, a poverty-reducing benefit for families modelled on a successful Trudeau government program, and a middle-class tax cut.
But blue-collar voters increasingly see the Democrats as the party of educated progressives. In the Times/Siena poll, Mr. Trump is 33 percentage points ahead of Mr. Biden among white voters without a college degree. Mr. Biden remains ahead among non-white voters without a degree, but by a mere six points.
The poll also has Mr. Trump winning the Hispanic vote, a group Democrats used to think of as immutably in their camp.
Mr. Biden gave an energetic State of the Union speech, but much of the electorate is having trouble hearing what he’s saying. He’s coming across like the Charlie Brown teacher’s talking trombone sound. His economic message is being drowned out by his own party’s cultural noise. More on that in my next column.
Tony Keller