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What’s so special about Ottawa, Quebec City, Hamilton, Edmonton? BMO ranks 20 cities (but not for hockey)
business briefing
Michael Babad
Michael Babad

This article was published more than 5 years ago. Some information may no longer be current.

Briefing highlights

  • BMO ranks the cities
  • Markets, loonie at a glance
  • EU fines Google $5-billion
  • Morgan Stanley beats estimates

BMO ranks the cities

What’s so special about Ottawa, Quebec City, Hamilton and Edmonton?

They’re the top four locations in Canada for “attractiveness as an economic destination,” Bank of Montreal says in a study that notes some “stark changes” from a look five years ago.

“Employment prospects are typically the biggest factor driving migration trends, and we often simplify this by saying there are two key reasons to move: To find a job, if you don’t have one; or to take a better-paying job, if you do,” said BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic.

“We understand that mountains vs. lakes, or seafood vs. beef are among many other important considerations, but such lifestyle factors are ignored here,” he added.

With that in mind, here’s his ranking of 20 cities and Prince Edward Island:

Regional labour market attractiveness ranking

Rank LOCATION MEDIAN INCOME JOBLESS RATE (Y.T.D.) EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (Y.T.D. VS. 5-YEAR AVG.) AVG. HOME PRICE (THOUSANDS) 1-BEDROOM RENT (2017) INCOME TAX SALES TAX
1 Ottawa $98,500 4.7% 3.5% $403.5 $1,020 6.5% 13%
2 Quebec City $78,800 3.6% 4.1% $267.7 $700 11.2% 15%
3 Hamilton $82,600 5.0% 5.9% $549.0 $910 6.5% 13%
4 Edmonton $94,300 6.8% 1.4% $372.2 $990 6.8% 5%
5 Windsor $70,100 5.3% 3.3% $280.3 $720 6.5% 13%
6 Regina $89,200 5.5% 1.9% $302.3 $940 8.3% 11%
7 Calgary $95,200 7.9% 3.6% $464.0 $1,030 6.8% 5%
8 Victoria $76,500 4.2% 6.8% $695.4 $990 5.2% 12%
9 Guelph $91,900 4.9% 1.0% $521.3 $980 6.5% 13%
10 Saskatoon $85,400 6.9% 1.8% $330.2 $900 8.3% 11%
11 Montreal $71,500 6.0% 5.4% $362.6 $700 11.2% 15%
12 London $73,000 6.0% 1.5% $351.4 $840 6.5% 13%
13 Kitchener $85,000 5.4% 0.5% $474.8 $920 6.5% 13%
14 St. Catharines-Niagara $63,200 5.9% 1.4% $378.8 $820 6.5% 13%
15 Winnipeg $70,100 6.3% 2.2% $297.2 $880 10.0% 13%
16 Moncton $69,900 8.1% 0.4% $180.1 $680 9.9% 15%
17 Vancouver $77,100 4.1% 7.1% $1,027.4 $1,220 5.2% 12%
18 Halifax $76,500 7.6% 1.4% $304.0 $880 11.1% 15%
19 Toronto $78,800 6.0% 4.8% $756.0 $1,190 6.5% 13%
20 PEI $61,900 10.2% 2.4% $215.9 $730 10.6% 15%
21 St. John's $89,100 14.4% 3.9% $247.4 $790 9.9% 15%

Source: BMO Capital Markets

Canada’s economy, Mr. Kavcic said, is “settling into equilibrium,” with most of the provinces “converging back toward potential growth.”

Alberta, for example, has rebounded from the oil shock, while Ontario is coming off a string of three strong years.

Regional jobs markets are also converging, one of the results being that people moving from province to province is now steadier.

Consider Alberta, which saw an exodus of almost 20,000 people a year when oil prices plunged, compared with the influx of 35,000 annually during the good years.

“Across the country, B.C. and Ontario remain draws, while Saskatchewan and Manitoba are still weak, especially relative to their smaller population bases,” Mr. Kavcic said.

“Quebec has improved slightly (though consistently loses people to other parts of Canada), while outflows from Atlantic Canada have moderated significantly relative to past-decade norms.”

Of the top four:

OTTAWA

“We’ve been very bullish on Ottawa for a while now (the city, not the hockey team), and it shows. The city boasts the highest median employment income per family, and has seen its jobless rate sink nearly two percentage points below the 21-city average, while home prices remain decided affordable despite accelerating recently.”

QUEBEC CITY

While it rarely draws a big surge in population, the city is “remarkably stable” when it comes to its economy. “To boot, it boasts some of the most affordable housing in Canada. The tax burden, however, remains a drag.”

HAMILTON

“Keep in mind that labour force metrics reflect the location of home, not work. And, given that Toronto has been held back by significant pressure on housing affordability, cities like Hamilton and Guelph, within commuting distance of Toronto jobs, have served as a release valve.”

EDMONTON

Its economy is recovering after the oil shock, Mr. Kavcic said separately. “They were much more sheltered than Calgary, for example, during the downturn because of pretty aggressive government stimulus (and hiring) … Alberta still has a very favourable tax environment, even though a number of taxes (mainly for higher-income earners and corporations) have risen in recent years.”

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